A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be ...

Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency ...

April US retail sales were roughly in line with estimates, but real spending likely stayed flat-to-negative. Headline sales slowed to 0.5% m/m from 1.6% a month prior. The core measure, which excludes ...

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The Trump-Xi meeting was modestly positive, but it remained short on concrete commitments and did not amount to a strategic reset. Both sides still found room for limited trade de-escalation.

After a sharp surge in March, Brent has been largely directionless in recent weeks, trading within a wide range (Chart 1). Crude oil prices are now gyrating with headlines from the Middle East that ...

Our US Political and Geopolitical strategists expect Democrats to win the Senate in the 2026 midterms, despite an electoral map favorable to Republicans. Their quantitative model projects a narrow ...

The dollar's retreat is creating the most compelling window for euro internationalisation since Maastricht, but Europe is missing the one instrument that would make it real. In this report, we make ...

Q1 productivity data do not support the case for a broad, AI-driven productivity boom. We noted last week that US productivity growth in Q1 was lackluster. Our BCA Confirming Productivity Indicator, ...

Equities have thrown caution to the wind for much of April and early May. We do not disagree with the sanguine mood, but caution that the Hormuz saga is far from over. Still, the AI capex mania ...

The geomacro outlook for the rest of the year depends on President Trump's ability to negotiate an effective ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz. But that in part depends on US domestic politics and the ...

April PPI was hotter than expected, reinforcing the inflation message from CPI rather than changing it. Headline PPI for final demand rose 1.4% m/m, up from an upwardly revised 0.7% in March. The core ...