Equities have thrown caution to the wind for much of April and early May. We do not disagree with the sanguine mood, but caution that the Hormuz saga is far from over. Still, the AI capex mania ...

Our US Political and Geopolitical strategists expect Democrats to win the Senate in the 2026 midterms, despite an electoral map favorable to Republicans. Their quantitative model projects a narrow ...

Q1 productivity data do not support the case for a broad, AI-driven productivity boom. We noted last week that US productivity growth in Q1 was lackluster. Our BCA Confirming Productivity Indicator, ...

April PPI was hotter than expected, reinforcing the inflation message from CPI rather than changing it. Headline PPI for final demand rose 1.4% m/m, up from an upwardly revised 0.7% in March. The core ...

Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency ...

April US retail sales were roughly in line with estimates, but real spending likely stayed flat-to-negative. Headline sales slowed to 0.5% m/m from 1.6% a month prior. The core measure, which excludes ...

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The Trump-Xi meeting was modestly positive, but it remained short on concrete commitments and did not amount to a strategic reset. Both sides still found room for limited trade de-escalation.

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

The April NAB survey points to a worsening growth-inflation mix in Australia. Business conditions moderated to +3 from +6, a fourth consecutive decline that left the index firmly below its long-term ...

Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists laid out a framework for evaluating private equity investments. While fund vehicles often last more than ten years, the assets they contain are held ...

The April NFIB survey pointed to weaker growth, even as labor-market signals firmed at the margin. The index came in at 95.9, up slightly from 95.8 in March, but expectations deteriorated to 4% from ...