Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Discover how probability distribution methods can help predict stock market returns and improve investment decisions. Learn to assess risk and potential gains.

The chance of rain, shown on a weather app, is given as a percentage. This is a relative frequency, based on real data. The chance of rain, shown on a weather app, is given as a percentage. This is a ...

Free Photo Think back to ancient leaders who looked to the stars or the flight patterns of birds just to predict the future.

"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...